Abacoa & Alton Neighbors - November 2025

6 A B A C O A & A LT O N N E I G H B O R S | N O V E M B E R 2 0 2 5 A s of September 2025, the global economy continues to expand moderately, with the IMF holding its growth forecast at about 3.0% for the year. Trade conditions have improved as tensions between the U.S., China, and Canada ease, and the WTO has raised its global trade outlook to 2.4%, supported by demand for AI-related goods. Export-driven markets like Vietnam are growing around 6.5%, though the World Bank notes signs of cooling momentum. In the U.S., growth remains steady near 1.9–2.0% in 2025, driven by consumer spending even as the labor market softens. Inflation expectations have edged slightly higher, and consumer confidence is mixed. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate to 4.00–4.25% in September and may lower rates again by 25– 50 basis points this fall if economic data weakens. Bond yields have drifted lower, with the 10-year Treasury around 4.0%, and mortgage rates are at their lowest in nearly a year. Equity markets have held firm, with the S&P 500 (via SPY) near $648. Gains are led by strong tech earnings and optimism about AI-driven productivity. Market volatility has eased, and recession risks have fallen to roughly 35–40%, reflecting growing confidence - By Jeremy L. Wilmes MBA, CFP,®ChFC®CLU,®CASL, RICP® - that the economy can sustain modest growth without contracting. In Europe, growth remains sluggish but stable, while emerging markets show resilience, supported by improved policy frameworks and reduced inflation pressures. These economies continue to attract investment despite external headwinds. For investors, balance and diversification remain key. A mix of high-quality bonds, U.S. and international equities, and targeted exposure to growth sectors such as technology and AI offers a prudent strategy for the remainder of 2025. Maintaining liquidity and focusing on quality growth opportunities should help investors navigate a still-uncertain global landscape. Securities and investment advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Osaic Wealth is separately owned, and other entities and/or marketing names, products, or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth. Economic Update EXPERT CONTRIBUTOR FOR NOVEMBER