Palm Beach Gardens Lving - April 2026

A P R I L 2 0 2 6 | PA L M B E A C H G A R D E N S L I V I N G 5 - By Jeremy L. Wilmes MBA, CFP,®ChFC®CLU,®CASL, RICP® - Economic Update FOR APRIL A s of early spring 2026, the U.S. economy continues to expand, though growth has moderated meaningfully from the stronger pace seen earlier in the post-pandemic cycle. After solid activity through much of 2025, economic momentum cooled in the second half of the year. Most consensus forecasts now project real GDP growth in the roughly 2% range for 2026, reflecting continued expansion but at a more measured pace. Monetary policy remains a central driver of the outlook. After cutting interest rates in late 2025, the Federal Reserve has shifted toward a more balanced stance, emphasizing that future decisions will remain data dependent. Policymakers are weighing gradual progress on inflation against signs that labor market conditions are softening. Inflation has moderated from its earlier peaks but remains above the Fed’s 2% long-run target, with recent estimates generally hovering around the 2.5%–3% range, reinforcing a cautious approach toward additional rate cuts. The labor market has also cooled from historically tight conditions. Job growth has slowed, and unemployment has drifted into the low- to mid-4% range, signaling a gradual normalization rather than a sharp deterioration. However, recent data suggest hiring momentum has weakened, highlighting the risk that the labor market could soften further if growth slows. At the same time, geopolitical developments and higher energy prices have introduced new uncertainty into the outlook. Rising oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East have the potential to place upward pressure on inflation and weigh on consumer spending, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy path and raising the possibility of a more challenging mix of slower growth and persistent inflation pressures. Looking ahead, private-sector investment, particularly in technology, artificial intelligence, and productivity-enhancing infrastructure, may provide an important offset to cyclical headwinds. Business investment and ongoing innovation could help sustain economic expansion even as monetary policy remains restrictive and global risks persist. Bottom line: The U.S. economy continues to grow, but the pace is moderating, and uncertainty has increased. For investors, maintaining exposure to high-quality assets, strong balance sheets, ample liquidity, and companies with durable cash flows and pricing power remains a prudent strategy in an environment defined by slower growth, evolving policy dynamics, and elevated geopolitical risk. Securities and investment advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Osaic Wealth is separately owned, and other entities and/or marketing names, products, or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth. EXPERT CONTRIBUTOR U.S. Economic Outlook: Slower Growth, Rising Uncertainty